The chaos of the new age, the realization of Alvin Toffler's Future Shock, may be reflected by the inversion of all the old logic. Theorists believe that conditions deviate from the bell curve only during periods of transition.
But, the importance seems to be shifting to the edges. They are assuming "middle-America", "middlebrow" tastes. The implications are huge: insurers, marketers, policy makers and pollsters may be basing decisions on faulty premises about what is "normal". But more and more things seem to be going bi-modal. Not everything measurable conforms to the well curve. Purchasing patterns: The Wall Street Journal noted last year, "consumers are flocking to the most expensive products and the cheapest products, fleeing the middle ground.".School Grades: In the last decade, the percentage of students scoring in the highest ranges increased, the percentage scoring at the bottom level increased, but the number with mid-scores dropped.But when the population is divided into five equal segments, a well curve emerges - there was faster growth at the top and bottom, with less growth in the middle. Drooping middle class: The Federal Reserve Board's latest analysis of family finances shows that, in the past decade, American incomes were up across the board.At the same time, the number of small, specialty boutiques is soaring. Retail: Wal-Mart has become the largest company in the Fortune 500, and big retail chains are expanding.Mid-sized seems to be going out of style. Consumer culture: Tiny screens (on cell-phones, PDAs and now wrist-PDAs) are multiplying, while large-screen TVs are also proliferating.And the mid-sized countries, like Italy and Spain, are losing population, power and status. Geopolitics: The past decade has seen the rise of huge multinational federations (NAFTA, the European Union, etc.) At the same time, small independent states and secessionist movements are also multiplying.Organization size: For a variety of reasons, big companies are growing bigger (witness the number of mergers) and the number of small businesses is multiplying.And it seems to be popping up everywhere recently. Instead of being high in the center and low on the sides, this new distribution is "bi-modal", low in the center and high on the sides. Recently, several economic and social phenomena seem to be following a different pattern. This "bell curve" defined normal statistical distribution, and it became a fundamental law of natural science, a cornerstone of statistics. When plotted on a chart, the data took the shape of a bell. The old bedrock is being shaken accepted rules are starting to be broken fundamentals are now paradoxes the obvious is becoming subtle.Ī century and a half ago mathematicians noticed that when large samples of different things were measured, results tended to cluster around an average. With the turbulence of this new century, a lot of things are turning upside down. Previously, the "bell curve" defined normal statistical distribution, and it became a fundamental law of natural science, a cornerstone of statistics.
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